States Trump visited that voted for
Clinton in 2016
Such tensions have unnerved Trump aides for years: Advisers in 2016 and 2017 discussed cutting back on rallies to avoid unforced errors but never seriously pursued such changes, said current and former White House officials.
Subtle attempts to polish Mr. Trump’s performances continue. Speechwriters try writing something new into the first 15 minutes of a speech, hoping he will stick to the script, said campaign officials and political advisers. That was the plan in North Carolina, when Mr. Trump unleashed a provocative attack on the liberal congresswomen known as “The Squad.”
It backfired when the audience responded by chanting “send her back,” a scene that threatened to alienate voters outside Mr. Trump’s core group, and the president has limited his complaints about the congresswomen in subsequent rallies.
Mr. Trump’s ceremonial campaign kickoff in Orlando in June, aides trimmed one draft of the speech to about 45 minutes to keep the crowd’s attention, said people who viewed it. Mr. Trump made his own changes and spoke for about an hour and a half. Mr. Trump’s following eight rallies averaged more than 90 minutes, including the speech in Minnesota, which approached 105 minutes. Advance teams
During private meetings with political advisers at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., in August, Mr. Trump emphasized his preference to host more rallies during the coming campaign, said people familiar with the meetings. It will be the bulk of the campaigning he does.
The campaign plans to build out two separate advance teams, the political equivalent of concert roadies, assigned to build stages and secure the expensive HMI light systems typical of Hollywood movie sets, campaign officials said. Campaign aides expect a more frenetic schedule than in 2016, when Mr. Trump held multiple rallies a day during the final six weeks of the race. In the final six days of the 2016 campaign, he held 23.
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campaign has made both subtle and significant changes to rallies since 2015, including brighter lighting, louder sound systems and better arena mechanics. No one wants a repeat of the 2016 Pensacola, Fla., rally when a popping microphone triggered expletives from Mr. Trump.
As the former star of his own reality show, Mr. Trump pays close attention to production details. At one campaign meeting, he pushed for entertainment and food trucks for rallygoers queued outside arenas. Mr. Glassner, his de facto producer, is almost always the first to greet him at a rally.
Ahead of June’s Orlando rally, Mr. Trump pushed to bring cabinet members along, but acting chief of staff
rebuffed him, said people present during the conversation. Mr. Mulvaney cautioned the president about potential violations of the Hatch Act, which prohibits federal workers from participating in partisan activities.
“I’m in charge of the Hatch Act,” Mr. Trump told him in a room full of other top aides, adding that his top staffer was “weak” for making the suggestion. Mr. Trump later backed off the idea.
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The most transformational change has been turning rallies into large-scale data-mining operations. The Trump campaign has collected millions
of phone numbers, email addresses and other personal information supporters hand over when signing up for text alerts or registering for rally tickets.
The Trump team uses the data to reveal people’s political registrations and in which elections they have voted. Then the team cross-references that information with data on their consumer habits—already collected by the Republican Party—to forecast how likely each rallygoer is to vote in 2020 and which candidate the voter will probably support, campaign officials said.
A yet-to-be released smartphone app will offer supporters certain perks, such as accelerated entry into rallies, in exchange for putting the campaign in contact with friends who might back the president and hand over personal data.
“Right now, in big cities, we’re walking out with up to 100,000 new phone numbers,” said
the Trump campaign’s manager. “That’s 100,000 people I can send a text message to on Election Day.”
Mr. Trump’s campaign manager, Brad Parscale, at an August rally.
Patrick Semansky/Associated Press
Mr. Trump’s team uploads data into a central database that will be used to recruit as many as two million volunteers, according to internal estimates, to continue to raise millions in small-dollar donations and to identify likely supporters and register them to vote.
America First Priorities, the super-PAC supporting Mr. Trump—it’s also targeting House Democrats with anti-impeachment ads—said it plans to register as many as 500,000 new voters in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania using these data. By comparison, Mr. Trump won those three states in 2016 by a combined 330,000 votes.
Mr. Parscale discussed with political operatives the possibility of using facial recognition at rallies to help analyze reactions from supporters, but was told by at least one company that the technology wasn’t reliable yet, according to people familiar with the conversations. A campaign spokesman said Mr. Parscale never pursued the technology.
‘Passion and commitment’
Campaign officials generally consider the first Trump rally to be his July 2015 Phoenix Convention Center speech. The campaign rented a small hotel reception room, moved to a larger ballroom and ultimately filled the 4,200-person convention-center room. In August 2015, an estimated 30,000 attended a rally in Mobile, Ala., the high-water mark for attendance.
Campaign officials generally consider the first Trump rally to be this July 2015 Phoenix speech.
Charlie Leight/Getty Images
With a shoestring staff and budget, the campaign had little idea who was attending. It started diligently collecting phone numbers in March 2016, not to store useful data but to discourage protesters—the start of a database now including more than 35 million numbers.
“In polling there is a difference between agreement, which is a party-line vote, and intensity, when voters walk through broken glass to vote for someone,” said Kellyanne Conway, the president’s White House counselor and former campaign manager. “The Trump rallies were a telling political measurement of passion and commitment. You just had to look at the rallies and realize that he had an intensity advantage.”
Behind the scenes, those close to Mr. Trump said, the president is most concerned about keeping seats filled, hearing himself on stage and making sure the crowds are taken care of. Constantly driving past long lines of supporters waiting to get inside rallies during the midterm elections, he told aides to do a better job tending to people while they waited.
In Orlando, the campaign introduced “45 Fest,” featuring bands playing classic-rock covers and food trucks selling poutine, hot dogs and water.
In general, Democratic presidential candidates have drawn significantly fewer spectators than Mr. Trump.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren
of Massachusetts attracted 15,000 to a Seattle rally on Aug. 25, and about 20,000 to a rally in New York on Sept. 16. That was the largest of Ms. Warren’s campaign, and similar in size to what was previously the only recent Democratic presidential campaign event to attract 20,000 people: California
Sen. Kamala Harris’s
January launch rally in Oakland, Calif.
Voter-registration forms at a North Carolina rally last month.
CAITLIN PENNA for The Wall Street Journal
Democrats have long collected data on their events’ attendees, said David Bergstein, the Democratic National Committee’s director of battleground-state communications, adding that the party is “taking nothing for granted.”
The DNC has improved the accuracy of its available data on voters, expanded its reach with new agreements to share information with state parties and increased the size of its technology team with the addition of senior staff with ties to
and Yahoo, he said. “The real significance of Trump’s rallies,” he said, “is that they are repelling the independent voters who will decide the election across the battleground states.”
The Trump campaign isn’t worried that cable networks don’t cover his rallies live anymore, said campaign officials. The rallies tend to become statewide media events, drawing local reporters and camera crews within a drivable distance of cities like Grand Rapids, Mich., or Green Bay, Wis., to report on thousands who show up to see the president, including many who camp outside the arena a day or two in advance.
The most recent rallies have been populated by supporters eager to show they still back the president despite the House investigation. Randal Thom, who has attended more than 50 Trump rallies, said the crowd at the Minneapolis event was among the loudest he has heard—because of impeachment talk.
“It’s emboldened us, and made us stronger and more willing to be louder and stand up stronger,” said Mr. Thom, 59, who raises Alaskan malamutes in Lakefield, Minn. “An attack on him is an attack on us.”
Members of the audience cheer as President Trump speaks at a campaign rally at American Airlines Arena in Dallas in October.
Andrew Harnik/Associated Press
—Catherine Lucey contributed to this article.
Write to Michael C. Bender at Mike.Bender@wsj.com
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