Connect with us

TOP BREAKING NEWS!

When Will the Democratic Presidential Primary Finally Slim Down?


Financial

When Will the Democratic Presidential Primary Finally Slim Down?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-will-the-democratic-presidential-primary-finally-slim-down-11571921298?mod=hp_lead_pos10

The 2020 Democratic presidential primary features the largest field of candidates in modern electoral history. But the field is also narrowing faster than in previous campaigns. About a quarter of candidates who entered the race have already ended their campaigns. That is double the 1976-2016 median rate of 12% who had quit running at this point in the campaign, 100 days ahead of the Iowa caucuses.

Percentage of announced candidates who had dropped out by the end of each month, through October of the year prior to the election

Percentage of announced candidates who had dropped out by the end of each month, through October of the year prior to the election

Percentage of announced candidates who had dropped out by the end of each month, through October of the year prior to the election

Percentage of announced candidates who had dropped out by the end of each month, through October of the year prior to the election

Just two prior nominating contests in the past 44 years have seen a larger percentage decline in active candidates by this point in the race: the relatively small Democratic field in the 2016 cycle, which shrank to three candidates from five by the end of October 2015 when Sens.

Jim Webb

and

Lincoln Chafee

ended their bids; and the 2000 Republican race, which went from 12 active candidates to six. Notably that year,

Sen. John McCain

—who went on to become the chief rival to eventual nominee

George W. Bush

—didn’t formally enter the race until September.

That election was one of the last in which the field of candidates reached critical mass so late in the cycle. From 1976 to 1996, primary contests from both parties saw early entries, but many were long-shot candidates trying to build momentum. In that 20-year period, just seven candidates had announced more than a year before Iowa, and only one of those—

Jimmy Carter

—went on to win the nomination. Fields of candidates during this period typically peaked in size around the fall of the year before the election.

Size of the presidential primary field, relative to the date of the Iowa caucuses

Size of the presidential primary field, relative to the date of the Iowa caucuses

Size of the presidential primary field, relative to the date of the Iowa caucuses

Size of the presidential primary field, relative to the date of the Iowa caucuses

A Step-By-Step Blueprint For Making Money Online, That Is 100% Dummy Proof!

GET EASY FREE TRAFFIC + AFFILIATE OFFER = COMMI$$IONS

Get The Simple Traffic Blueprint Now!

In more recent elections, the number of candidates seeking their party’s nomination has generally topped out much earlier. This year, eight candidates announced more than a year before voting begins in Iowa, and the size of the field maxed out by June.

Size of the presidential primary field, relative to the date of the Iowa caucuses

Size of the presidential primary field, relative to the date of the Iowa caucuses

Size of the presidential primary field, relative to the date of the Iowa caucuses

Size of the presidential primary field, relative to the date of the Iowa caucuses

Historically, there is little motivation to end a campaign before voting begins, unless candidates are simply unable to afford to carry on. Just this past week, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development

Julián Castro

announced he might have to end his campaign if he didn’t raise $800,000 by the end of October. That echoed a similar plea last month from Sen.

Cory Booker,

who said his bid might end if he couldn’t raise $1.7 million in the final 10 days of September. (He met that self-imposed goal.)

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

Which four Democratic candidates are your top choices? Why? Join the conversation below.

Once the field does start to narrow significantly, a key question will be who the also-rans rally around. Many point to the fractured GOP race in 2016, when Republicans couldn’t find consensus on a single candidate to be the establishment alternative to

Donald Trump.

To date, none of the six Democratic dropouts have endorsed anyone.

That isn’t unusual; many hold off until voting is under way, while others endorse when someone has essentially clinched the nomination. A handful may wait until the party convention, sometimes in hopes of extracting some policy concessions. Since 2000, of those who made endorsements before a candidate had locked up the nomination, three-quarters threw their support behind the eventual nominee.

When candidates who have dropped out endorse another candidate

When candidates who have dropped out endorse another candidate

When candidates who have dropped out endorse another candidate

When candidates who have dropped out endorse another candidate

Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Free Gift With Our Newsletter

We hate SPAM and promise to keep your email address safe

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Top Stories!

To Top