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Leading the Polls Now? That’s No Indicator of Who Will Win the Primary
https://www.wsj.com/articles/leading-the-polls-now-thats-no-indicator-of-who-will-win-the-primary-11572617880?mod=hp_lead_pos5
Photo:
Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Leading in the polls a year before the general election isn’t a good indicator of success. Only one time in a competitive primary since 2004 has The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll leader gone on to win their party’s nomination:
Mitt Romney
in 2012.
In fact, many of the front-runners a year out have gone on to primary obscurity. In 2015, for example,
Ben Carson
was leading the eventual Republican nominee,
Donald Trump,
by six percentage points in late October—only to barely register at the ballot box, receiving less than half a percentage point of primary votes.
Here is a look at every competitive primary’s polling and results since 2004:
Polling leader one year from general election
Real Clear Politics
polling average
Oct. 18–30, 2019
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Oct. 25-29, 2015
Percentage
of all 2016 primary votes
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Nov. 2–5, 2011
Percentage
of all 2012 primary votes
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Nov. 1–5, 2007
Percentage
of all 2008 primary votes*
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Nov. 1–5, 2007
Percentage
of all 2008 primary votes
WSJ/NBC News poll
Nov. 8-10, 2003
Percentage
of all 2004 primary votes
Polling leader one year from general election
Real Clear Politics polling average
Oct. 18–30, 2019
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Oct. 25-29, 2015
Percentage
of all 2016 primary votes
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Nov. 2–5, 2011
Percentage
of all 2012 primary votes
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Nov. 1–5, 2007
Percentage
of all 2008 primary votes*
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News poll
Nov. 1–5, 2007
Percentage
of all 2008 primary votes
WSJ/NBC News poll
Nov. 8-10, 2003
Percentage
of all 2004 primary votes
Polling leader one year from general election
Real Clear Politics polling average
Oct. 18–30, 2019
WSJ/NBC News poll
Oct. 25-29, 2015
Percentage of all 2016 primary votes
WSJ/NBC News poll
Nov. 2–5, 2011
Percentage of all 2012 primary votes
WSJ/NBC News poll
Nov. 1–5, 2007
Percentage of all 2008 primary votes*
WSJ/NBC News poll
Nov. 1–5, 2007
Percentage of all 2008 primary votes
WSJ/NBC News poll
Nov. 8-10, 2003
Percentage of all 2004 primary votes
Polling leader one year from general election
Real Clear Politics
polling average
Oct. 18–30, 2019
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Oct. 25-29, 2015
Percentage
of all 2016 primary votes
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Nov. 2–5, 2011
Percentage
of all 2012 primary votes
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Nov. 1–5, 2007
Percentage
of all 2008 primary votes*
WSJ/NBC
News poll
Nov. 1–5, 2007
Percentage
of all 2008 primary votes
WSJ/NBC News poll
Nov. 8-10, 2003
Percentage
of all 2004 primary votes
Election 2020: One Year Out
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